This morning, former fighter pilot, Amy McGrath released a very well done video announcing that she was challenging Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, next year (story HERE).
The video made some noise and introduced the rest of the country to her story and her platform and now everyone is convinced that McConnell has finally met his match.
After one video.
Let’s pump the brakes. I’m not sold on her chances and we’re ignoring a lot of existing factors there.
Here are just a couple.
She’s already lost in Kentucky: She’s another candidate trying to “fail up”. Like Beto O’Rourke in Texas, who also lost his Senate race against Ted Cruz and is now running for President, she lost her congressional campaign last November. I appreciate perseverance don’t throw some who just lost nine months ago at me and say they’re the real deal.
Remember Allison Grimes: Wasn’t McConnell supposed to lose in 2014? That’s right against Allison Grimes. This was after actress, Ashley Judd, decided to pass on the contest. Grimes lost by over two touchdowns.
Kentucky is still very red: That hasn’t changed. If you want to look at something more recent, look at 2016 where Trump easily won the state and Rand Paul won by 15 points. There is no evidence in front of us to make us believe 2020 will be any difference.
She could end up on the ballot with a hard progressive: If McGrath ends up on the ballot with a Bernie Sanders, what do you think that will do to her chances when she’ll have to run as a moderate in a general election. McConnell’s campaign will have a field day with that.
$$$: McConnell will have all he needs. What kind of investment will McGrath’s supporters be prepared to make when they’re trying to defeat the Senate Leader and the President?
The real hype belongs to consultants who produced that video. It worked. And a lot of casual campaign followers are all over it.
But let’s take a breath and look at the real. McGrath is still a longshot.