This morning, the latest 2020 Florida polling numbers had President Donald Trump tying former Vice President Joe Biden here in the Sunshine State, and defeating all other credible Democratic challengers (story HERE).
First off this is a poll. The same kind of poll that had Clinton stomping Trump in 2016. The same kind of polls Ron DeSantis losing to Andrew Gillum last year, and the same kind of poll that had Rick Scott losing both of his races for Governor as well as last year’s Senate race.
At this point, we should require seeing a string of decisive polls in a race before we determine a favorite, but if we do see this as an honest read, then a tie against Trump is bad news for Democrats.
Honestly, a lead outside of the margin of error is bad news for Florida Dems.
Why? Because, it’s no sure thing they’re going to show up and if they do, a fraction of them could be disgruntled progressives that will send their vote to Jill Stein-ish option. The DNC could try to close that rift at the convention but we’ve seen how good they are at that.
If this polling sticks, and granted we still have a very, very, long way to go, that is a possible scenario.
Now, if we look at the other side of the spectrum, the poll might not properly illustrate any moderate Republicans who have yet to buy their ticket for the 2020 Trump train, and could still be swing votes with almost a year and a half left.
Either way its early. Let’s take a breath. This is one poll. In Florida. In May the year before the election. In the I4 corridor. There are no certainties.