The first big polling numbers following last month’s two democratic presidential primary debates are out, and the NBC/Wall Street Journal numbers have a few things we can take away from them (story HERE).
First the polling results of the top five candidates.
Joe Biden 26%
Elizabeth Warren 19%
Kamala Harris 13%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Pete Buttigieg 7%
And here are 5 take aways:
Biden is dinged but has time to recover: The former Vice President doesn’t have a double digit lead anymore. This is because he looked a bit dated in his first debate in almost 7 years. He can recover by being a little more aggressive in the Michigan debates later this month, but he took a hit.
Warren’s first night, spotlight performance paid off and she’s pulling support from Bernie: The Massachusetts Senator made the most of her time on stage the first night, with the other major candidates jumbled together on night two. This bump in support are likely progressive voters previously under the Bernie Sanders tent. We’ll get to him shortly.
Kamala Harris is now a regular top 3 pick and she’s pulling numbers from Biden: The big winner of the second night ensured that she’ll be in the mention of the top three contenders for a few weeks to come. She was previously floating between 3 and five. She’s pulling those voters from Joe Biden. Just like Warren is pulling progressive support from Sanders, Harris is pulling moderate and center left voters from the former Vice President.
Bernie looks and sounds old next to Warren: If you’re Bernie, all of your ideas are being blasted out by a more energetic presence talking to your base. You can’t be sluggish and convince voters you can slug it out with Trump unless you step it up. By the way, in case you’re wondering, he’s 77 and she’s 70.
Mayor Pete needs to avoid slipping further: That percentage drop between the top four candidates and Buttigieg is concerning. He needs to get back to that earned media way of campaigning to get some momentum back.