Yesterday, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, announced that she would begin an “impeachment inquiry” that should play out in different house committees in the coming days. The process is expected to eventually halt at the more Trump friendly Senate.
How will effect politics here in the “Heart of the I4 Corridor”?
Not very much.
If you look at the Greater Orlando tri-county congressional delegation, Val Demings in the Orange County-centric 10th district will still be strongly favored for reelection next year, so will Darren Soto in the Orange/Osceola 9th district. Stephanie Murphy in the Orange/Seminole county 7th district might have to do some moderate voter math, but in a general election with the shifting blue demographics in the region, she should still be favored as well.
As for Trump’s reelection, Orange and Osceola county will still go blue for the Democratic nominee. It’s in some of the other counties in the area, like Volusia, Lake, and swing county Seminole where Trump’s base could get aggravated and activated into action for next year.
We have to remember that Hillary hit her numbers in 2016, its just that Trump exceeded his in Florida. Impeachment proceedings will likely get Trump supporters to the polls to “defend their guy”. Meanwhile, Democrats will still have a long slog to get their people out to support their nominee.
Everything I’ve just written was expected for next year anyways. Instead, it will be these impeachment proceedings that gets everyone running to their corners early instead of a convention, and even then, who knows what the landscape will look like next summer.
But to double back once more, you never know what we’re going to find out during the investigation and what other controversial actions will be taken by President Trump.
This Presidency has been anything but predictable.